wow the volatility is so freaking high.. this is crazy

keep holding

i bought in JBLU today

market = pwned today

chinese markets got owned yesturday, US sell off today =(

AMGN

in on AMGN at 66.25

progress so far

well, i think my picks have been doing quite well so far.

i'm up double digit percentages in EBAY, PALM, HAL- have options that
all expire in March that are all in the money, so these stocks will
probably get called away. unfortunately, jumped the gun a bit early
on PALM options, which means i'll prob be losing .50 cents a share in
profit- but then again, i'm up about 1.50-2.00 a share on each so it's
not a big deal.

as i predicted, crude oil is doing well, as prices are topping 61 a
barrel, which means that the USO fund is doing quite well also, since
it basically mimics crude. WMT is doing well, and was also a stock
that I believed i mentioned pretty early on. both are still long
positions, although I would take some profits from USO because of the
warming weather. however, the geopolitical situation makes it so that
oil still stays high or may go even higher.

XMSR and SIRI. shoulda sold in pre-market, but wasn't sure if my
brokerage was capable of doing that. instead, I just sold some long
calls for july and june respectively, which I think is a good move,
since I've technically locked in the profits, but hedged the downside
incase the deals don't go through. I'll be looking to cover in the
next few days as the volatilty drops, and make a quick buck here and
there. that way, hopefully when they both announce their earnings
calls, both of these stocks will get another nice pop up. these
stocks are definitely a bit of a bet that the merger is allowed, and
if it is, i think xmsr is the one that benefits more here.. at least
in terms of share price. i believe both these stocks are shorted
pretty heavily, so there might be a short squeeze which would drive
prices up if earnings are really good next week. most of the stock
movement will be around the merger talks though.

so we'll see.. hopefully stocks stay around the price, without too
much up or downard movement. i want more horizontal movement with
options on all my stocks right now.

work today, XMSR and SIRI together

siri and xmsr annouced a deal over the weekend that will allow them to
merge. siri is offering 4.6 shares of its stock for each share of
XMSR. as you know, i own both and so basically the stocks are both up
today, with XMSR up over 25% in pre market and SIRI up about 12% in
premarket.

my play: sell both. if you value xmsr, it should be at 19.00 a share
based on that 4.6 times valuation of SIRI shares at 4.15, but 2 dollar
a share is the 50-50 gamble that this stock will merge.

take the money and bizzounce. go to mortons if you bought xmsr haha.

peace,
winston

PALM

palm is at 16 now.. i told you to buy it when it was at 14.50

IM GOOD

--
Winston

oil

oil is up up up.

past 60 now.. USO fund has broken 50.

EBAY

sold ebay call options, at 1.30 a share, for march 32.5

word

oil stocks

exactly two weeks ago, i told you to get into oil, either through HAL,
or the US oil, (USO) etf fund. well, oil was at the low 50's per
barrel at the time, and now it's in the high 50's, and almost at 60,
which is obviously a resistance level, but may even go to 65 in the
near future.

word. oil is always going to be expensive.

AMZN

AMZN stock down about 4% right now as i post- report not as
dissapointing as i expected, but obviouslt sotck still getting hit as
a result of profit margins getting owned.

told you to buy 1.30 PUT options, you can flip that right now at about
1.50, so 20 cents a share.. not too bad percentage wise. hit that,
and get rid of it becofre it becomes worthless.

RACK- wow, this stock got owned.

HAL

sold march 30 options on hal- 1.10 a share. word

winston

AMZN earnings today

well, it's around 11am on thursday. AMZN releases today. I just don't see amzn doing as well as the stock has indicated since it has had a pretty sick run up in the last few months. I don't think it does that well this past quarter, and will miss, or give bad outlook. I know online sales have been some of the best that it's been ever for the Q4 season, but I think that by providing free amazon prime to customers hurts their bottom line, plus the fact that they offered those heavily discounted items as a promotion during the holiday season, which didn't really bring people to buy other things. Also, they were not able to offer the PS3 until now.

All things said, I think this stock is too high right now. The P/E ratio is pretty high too, and I think alot of the expectation has already been built into the stock price, so basically this stock needs to beat expectations by alot and have great outlook, or just do okay or poorly to take a huge hit.

If I had some money that weren't in stocks right now but was okay to invest and take a gamble with, I would buy some PUTS for AMZN.. probably the 37.5 PUT for March, which is 1.6 a contract right now since the stock is on the upside today, or the Feb one at 37.5, which is at 1.3. However, I am willing to pay the 30 cent premium on the longer term one, since I believe the implied volatility priced into the options right now make the shorter term one the more expensive one to buy. I would probably put a few hundred on the March one, as a small gamble. We'll see what the after market brings when AMZN releases earnings.