well, it's around 11am on thursday. AMZN releases today. I just don't see amzn doing as well as the stock has indicated since it has had a pretty sick run up in the last few months. I don't think it does that well this past quarter, and will miss, or give bad outlook. I know online sales have been some of the best that it's been ever for the Q4 season, but I think that by providing free amazon prime to customers hurts their bottom line, plus the fact that they offered those heavily discounted items as a promotion during the holiday season, which didn't really bring people to buy other things. Also, they were not able to offer the PS3 until now.
All things said, I think this stock is too high right now. The P/E ratio is pretty high too, and I think alot of the expectation has already been built into the stock price, so basically this stock needs to beat expectations by alot and have great outlook, or just do okay or poorly to take a huge hit.
If I had some money that weren't in stocks right now but was okay to invest and take a gamble with, I would buy some PUTS for AMZN.. probably the 37.5 PUT for March, which is 1.6 a contract right now since the stock is on the upside today, or the Feb one at 37.5, which is at 1.3. However, I am willing to pay the 30 cent premium on the longer term one, since I believe the implied volatility priced into the options right now make the shorter term one the more expensive one to buy. I would probably put a few hundred on the March one, as a small gamble. We'll see what the after market brings when AMZN releases earnings.
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